The recent revelations of a International Energy Administration whistleblower that the IEA may have misshaped key oil forecasts under intense U.S. pressure is, if true (and whistleblowers seldom come forward to advance their professions), a slow-burning thermonuclear explosion on future international oil production. The Bush administration's actions in pushing the IEA to underplay the rate of decline from existing oil fields while overplaying the chances of finding new reserves have the possible to toss governments' long-lasting planning into turmoil.

Whatever the reality, increasing long term international needs appear particular to overtake production in the next years, especially given the high and rising costs of establishing brand-new super-fields such as Kazakhstan's offshore Kashagan and Brazil's southern Atlantic Jupiter and Carioca fields, which will need billions in investments before their very first barrels of oil are produced.

In such a situation, additives and alternatives such as biofuels will play an ever-increasing function by stretching beleaguered production quotas. As market forces and increasing rates drive this innovation to the forefront, one of the richest possible production areas has been totally ignored by financiers up to now - Central Asia. Formerly the USSR's cotton "plantation," the region is poised to become a significant gamer in the production of biofuels if enough foreign investment can be obtained. Unlike Brazil, where biofuel is made mostly from sugarcane, or the United States, where it is primarily distilled from corn, Central Asia's ace resource is a native plant, Camelina sativa.

Of the former Soviet Caucasian and Central Asian republics, those clustered around the coasts of the Caspian, Azerbaijan and Kazakhstan have seen their economies boom due to the fact that of record-high energy prices, while Turkmenistan is waiting in the wings as a rising manufacturer of gas.

Farther to the east, in Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan, geographical isolation and reasonably little hydrocarbon resources relative to their Western Caspian next-door neighbors have actually mostly inhibited their capability to cash in on rising worldwide energy demands already. Mountainous Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan stay mostly dependent for their electrical needs on their Soviet-era hydroelectric facilities, but their increased need to generate winter electrical energy has actually led to autumnal and winter water discharges, in turn significantly affecting the farming of their western downstream neighbors Uzbekistan, Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan.

What these three downstream nations do have nevertheless is a Soviet-era tradition of farming production, which in Uzbekistan's and Turkmenistan case was mostly directed towards cotton production, while Kazakhstan, beginning in the 1950s with Khrushchev's "Virgin Lands" programs, has become a major manufacturer of wheat. Based upon my discussions with Central Asian federal government authorities, provided the thirsty demands of cotton monoculture, foreign proposals to diversify agrarian production towards biofuel would have fantastic appeal in Astana, Ashgabat and Tashkent and to a lesser degree Astana for those sturdy investors going to wager on the future, specifically as a plant native to the area has actually already proven itself in trials.

Known in the West as false flax, wild flax, linseed dodder, German sesame and Siberian oilseed, camelina is drawing in increased clinical interest for its oleaginous qualities, with several European and American companies currently investigating how to produce it in industrial quantities for biofuel. In January Japan Airlines carried out a historic test flight utilizing camelina-based bio-jet fuel, ending up being the first Asian carrier to experiment with flying on fuel stemmed from sustainable feedstocks throughout a one-hour presentation flight from Tokyo's Haneda Airport. The test was the conclusion of a 12-month assessment of camelina's operational efficiency ability and potential industrial viability.

As an alternative energy source, camelina has much to recommend it. It has a high oil material low in hydrogenated fat. In contrast to Central Asia's thirsty "king cotton," camelina is drought-resistant and immune to spring freezing, needs less fertilizer and herbicides, and can be utilized as a rotation crop with wheat, which would make it of specific interest in Kazakhstan, now Central Asia's major wheat exporter. Another perk of camelina is its tolerance of poorer, less fertile conditions. An acre planted with camelina can produce up to 100 gallons of oil and when planted in rotation with wheat, camelina can increase wheat production by 15 percent. A ton (1000 kg) of camelina will contain 350 kg of oil, of which pushing can extract 250 kg. Nothing in camelina production is wasted as after processing, the plant's debris can be utilized for animals silage. Camelina silage has an especially appealing concentration of omega-3 fats that make it an especially great animals feed prospect that is just now getting recognition in the U.S. and Canada. Camelina is quick growing, produces its own natural herbicide (allelopathy) and contends well against weeds when an even crop is developed. According to Britain's Bangor University's Centre for Alternative Land Use, "Camelina might be an ideal low-input crop ideal for bio-diesel production, due to its lower requirements for nitrogen fertilizer than oilseed rape."

Camelina, a branch of the mustard family, is indigenous to both Europe and Central Asia and hardly a new crop on the scene: archaeological proof indicates it has actually been cultivated in Europe for at least 3 centuries to produce both vegetable oil and animal fodder.

Field trials of production in Montana, presently the center of U.S. camelina research, showed a vast array of outcomes of 330-1,700 lbs of seed per acre, with oil content varying between 29 and 40%. Optimal seeding rates have actually been identified to be in the 6-8 lb per acre variety, as the seeds' small size of 400,000 seeds per lb can produce issues in germination to attain an ideal plant density of around 9 plants per sq. ft.

Camelina's capacity might permit Uzbekistan to start breaking out of its most dolorous legacy, the imposition of a cotton monoculture that has deformed the nation's attempts at agrarian reform given that achieving independence in 1991. Beginning in the late 19th century, the Russian government determined that Central Asia would become its cotton plantation to feed Moscow's growing fabric industry. The procedure was sped up under the Soviets. While Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, Tajikistan and Turkmenistan were also bought by Moscow to sow cotton, Uzbekistan in particular was singled out to produce "white gold."

By the end of the 1930s the Soviet Union had ended up being self-dependent in cotton; 5 decades later it had become a major exporter of cotton, producing more than one-fifth of the world's production, concentrated in Uzbekistan, which produced 70 percent of the Soviet Union's output.

Try as it may to diversify, in the absence of options Tashkent stays wedded to cotton, producing about 3.6 million tons annually, which brings in more than $1 billion while constituting around 60 percent of the country's tough currency income.

Beginning in the mid-1960s the Soviet federal government's instructions for Central Asian cotton production largely bankrupted the area's scarcest resource, water. Cotton utilizes about 3.5 acre feet of water per acre of plants, leading Soviet coordinators to divert ever-increasing volumes of water from the area's 2 primary rivers, the Amu Darya and Syr Darya, into inefficient watering canals, resulting in the significant shrinking of the rivers' last location, the Aral Sea. The Aral, when the world's fourth-largest inland sea with a location of 26,000 square miles, has actually diminished to one-quarter its initial size in among the 20th century's worst ecological disasters.

And now, the dollars and cents. Dr. Bill Schillinger at Washington State University just recently described camelina's organization model to Capital Press as: "At 1,400 pounds per acre at 16 cents a pound, camelina would bring in $224 per acre; 28-bushel white wheat at $8.23 per bushel would amass $230."

Central Asia has the land, the farms, the irrigation facilities and a modest wage scale in comparison to America or Europe - all that's missing out on is the foreign financial investment. U.S. investors have the cash and access to the competence of America's land grant universities. What is certain is that biofuel's market share will grow gradually; less particular is who will profit of developing it as a feasible issue in Central Asia.

If the current past is anything to go by it is unlikely to be American and European financiers, focused as they are on Caspian oil and gas.

But while the Japanese flight experiments suggest Asian interest, American investors have the scholastic expertise, if they are prepared to follow the Silk Road into developing a brand-new market. Certainly anything that decreases water usage and pesticides, diversifies crop production and enhances the great deal of their agrarian population will get most careful consideration from Central Asia's federal governments, and farming and grease processing plants are not only much cheaper than pipelines, they can be constructed more quickly.

And jatropha curcas's biofuel capacity? Another story for another time.